Thursday, September 19, 2013

Will 'Bharat Nirman' work magic for UPA?

Can political promises or achievements be packaged like FMCG products to woo, seduce and win over people? Monojit Lahiri attempts a dipstick

Remember the hi-profile, celebrated, BJP sponsored ‘India Shining’ campaign of 2003?  Conceived and crafted by reputed ad agency Grey Worldwide, I recall vividly how serious and renowned practitioners within the adfrat genuinely believed that it was a watershed in political advertising! Ironically, when the BJP lost, these very people – along with a score of drifters – dismissed it as over-the-top and misleading! Even the top brass of the BJP were reported to have [after much introspection] acknowledged that the tone and tenor of the communication appeared to be arrogant, and glossing over critical social and economic inequities.

A decade later, with elections knocking at our doors, is the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-sponsored Bharat Nirman campaign doing a déjà vu? A [reportedly] Rs.150 crore effort, with B-town heavies like Pradeep [Parineeta] Sarkar, Javed Akhtar, singers Shaan and Sunidhi Chauhan coming on board, will the Bharat Nirman ad campaign do what effective communication is meant to: inform, educate, persuade, sell?

The ‘Pope’ of Advertising, the late and legendary David Ogilvy, in his long and illustrious innings has confessed that he always, consciously, stayed away from political advertising. Not quite his cup of tea.  He was fond of quoting his colleague, Robert Spero who, in his landmark book ‘The Duping of the American Voter’ categorically believed that this genre was “the most deceptive, misleading, unfair and untruthful of all advertising. The sky is the limit to what can be said and promised, what accusations can be made, what lies can be told.”

Leading the pack from closer home is the respected National Creative Director (NCD) of Leo Burnett, Pops Sridhar. He believes that Spero is being a little too harsh on this genre. “This segment and type is undoubtedly tricky because faith, trust, integrity and confidence are the core products on sale. For this exact reason, the current Bharat Nirman campaign is shockingly bad because it is way off-centre in form and content, strategy and tactic! Glorious achievements is the last thing today’s aam aadmi – who is battered and bruised as he is with the rampaging demons of unemployment,  corruption, scams, economic doom and gloom, law and order breakdown et cetera – wants to hear!

The presentation of these ads too look very contrived and amateurish and overall remains ludicrous. Political commentator Paranjoy Guhathakurta agrees. “It’s India Shining re-visited! When ads and promos are more dazzling than the product, they only flatter to deceive, disappoint and mislead. You are not selling colas or chocolates, hence authenticity, seriousness and focus in an attractive way is critical, something that is totally missing from their effort.”

Next, two well-known ad professionals with political ad experience come to the fore with their respective points-of-view. The first, fittingly, is the very creator of the India Shining campaign, Pratap Suthan. “Contrary to popular perception and belief, India Shining did not start out as a political campaign. Its mandate was to invite and motivate people to invest in India because of the quantum leaps the nation was taking in every direction. It was a celebration of a resurgent India-on-the-move. Interestingly, just days after the campaign broke the Sensex went through the roof!” He agrees that the present Bharat Nirman does appear to echo the India Shining template “but the circumstances and timing couldn’t be worse, plagued as the country is with all possible problems on a daily basis…unless of course the strategy is: this is a UPA campaign and the Congress campaign will follow, cleverly acknowledging the problems and promising to address them, swiftly and effectively”.

Sushil Pandit, CEO of Hive Communications and an experienced hand in political advertising, offers his informed take. “First things first. No advertising on earth can ever work based on puffery, self-congratulatory mode or flaunting truths that are suspect…and God help if it arrives at a time that is inappropriate!  Bharat Nirman seems to be doing this both in letter and spirit.”  The Indian Shining campaign, believes Pandit, is an unfair and inaccurate comparison because that campaign did what it was meant to.  If you remember, only after the BJP lost did the buzz start and like making a century on the losing side doesn’t count, it was brushed-off and even blamed – by people who should’ve known better – as one of the reasons they lost. “Bharat Nirman for its turn is a classic example of wishful thinking. This self-indulgent package may have been tolerated in better times, but with everything hitting shit creek, the timing is most unfortunate. Little wonder that very few take this ad campaign seriously and are most shocked at its total disconnect with the ground realities. The presentation too is very un-creative and the recitation of facts and figures appear too pat n’ cosy to believe or get charged up. Overall, bizarre.”

Ad world specialists are all united, however, about one fact – how UPA has lost out on an opportunity to do an effective damage control act by not raising its hand, acknowledging its goof-ups and promising to be transparent and accountable. Also, not articulating some critical issues – like side-tracking the oldies and replacing them with younger can-do, will-do functionaries – that would demonstrate its intent about initiating solid steps towards offering a more dynamic blueprint.

Let us wait and watch how this campaign – attempting to play out the India story over nine years across print, TV and social media in 11 regional languages, with a budget in excess of Rs.150 crore, in its goal of convincing the Indian public of its aims to bring forth UPA’s public delivery schemes and pro-poor programme – works.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
ExecutiveMBA

Monday, September 9, 2013

Writing on the wall

The Congress and BJP are preparing for a showdown on social media in the run up to elections 2014, says Syed Khurram Raza

My first encounter with a political rally was post-Emergency when Atal Bihari Vajpayee, then senior Jan Sangh leader, was to address an election rally in support of the newly-set up Janta party at Delhi’s historic Ramlila maidan. It was a huge gathering and after the rally my father and uncle, declared in one voice that Janta Party would win hands down - and they were right. There were no exit polls or surveys, yet the prediction was spot on. The numbers and mood at the gathering gave laymen like us a sense of what lay ahead.


Cut to the present. Times have changed and the day may not be far when likes and dislikes at social media sites too can become a source – much in the manner of Vajpayee’s rally - to gauge the mood of the public.

Take the US. During the 2012 presidential election campaign, President Barack Obama had 22.7 million followers on Twitter and 32.2 million Likes on his Facebook account. It stood in contrast to main rival Mitt Romney’s 1.8 million Twitter followers and 12.1 million Facebook Likes - and this gave a fairly accurate sense of the ultimate poll outcome.

“Social media is a futuristic scenario and with mobile phones becoming internet compatible, the myth of limited reach is also dwindling. At present, users mainly include urban youth, but the reach is increasing and making inroads into rural areas also,’’ says a former bureaucrat in charge of Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit’s public relations.

He says that in two-and-a-half months, Likes at the chief minister’s Facebook profile have reached 35,000. “Basically, at present there are three social media sites, Facebook, YouTube and Blog, which make an impact. Facebook and YouTube are take-off platforms while Blog is a landing platform and because it is making its presence felt, political parties can’t avoid it.’’

In reality, until Egypt’s Tahrir Square revolution, which dethroned Hosni Mubarak, no one was quite sure of its effectiveness. After Tahrir, social media became a very potent medium of expression and agitation, the rage among the angry young men and women.

Soon enough, India too witnessed a wave of social media unrest during the Anna Hazare agitation and Delhi gang rape case. It is because of this popularity and mass appeal that there is a race among political parties and politicians to own website, Facebook and Twitter accounts. “The fact is that we can’t ignore this medium because it is a media of common people where an individual has the opportunity to express his feelings independently. Youth under 40 are using it and this group amounts to roughly 60 percent of voters. It is bound to impact electoral politics,” says Srikant Sharma, BJP Media Cell in charge.

According to him, “Sushma Swarajiji and Narendra Modiji have Twitter accounts and Arun Jaitleyji has his website. Rajnath Singhji has a Facebook account, similarly our cell has its own website, Facebook and Twitter.

Congress is not far behind “Social Media is playing and will continue to play an active role in politics. In addition to the urban vote, it is more informal, designed to send the message across to net savvy voters. They are a new dimension to the communication matrix and is proving to be relevant. I wouldn't say it has taken over but it certainly offers a powerful platform for people to connect and communicate,’’ says Priyanka Chaturvedi, AICC spokesperson and district general secretary, Mumbai Youth Congress.
To be sure though, there are cynics. “The jury is still out on whether noisemakers on social media actually vote. But it has made politicians jittery -  for want of a better word - and that is clearly affecting statecraft. Media is using social media as a stick to beat politicians with and the latter are obliging,” says journalist Abantika Ghosh.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman

ExecutiveMBA

Monday, July 29, 2013

The fountain in the closet

Ancient Secret of the Fountain of Youth! With a title like that, Peter Keldar’s little treatise was bound to find success on the publishing charts, over and over again. Written in 1939, Keldar’s little gem has since spawned hundreds of editions, translations, versions, workshops in spas and health centres, discussion forums and YouTube videos. But a question still lingers… Does this fountain really quench one’s thirst for everlasting youth?

Peter Keldar’s book was based on the adventures of Colonel Bradford, a retired British army officer. Apparently, Bradford’s constitution had been ravaged by the excesses of his demanding profession. Old before his time, the balding, stooping grey haired colonel chanced upon Keldar on a park bench. The colonel and Keldar strike up a conversation and thus began an enduring friendship.

On one of their afternoons together, Bradford mentions that during his time in India, he had heard of a monastery in the Himalayas where bubbles the fountain of youth. Keldar had dismissed it then as one amongst many legends that the colonel had picked up during his travels in distant lands. But one day the colonel returns with a map and an invitation – Would Keldar want to accompany him on his search for this fountain of youth? He has a map that he believes could take him there…

Though tempted, Keldar refuses, citing professional engagements that wouldn’t allow him to run off on what could well be a long and fruitless wild goose chase.

Years pass until Keldar receives a missive from the colonel claiming success in his mission. When they meet , Keldar finds it nearly impossible to believe that the tall and robust young man with a head full of thick dark hair  standing in front of him is indeed the once old colonel.

Gradually, the colonel reveals that the fountain he found was in fact a set of five exercises practiced by monks in a monastery hidden in the high passes along the Indo-Tibet border.

I first came across these exercises, now called the Tibetan Rites of Rejuvenation, or simply the Five Tibetans in a book by Christopher Kilham. I tried them out, and even wrote a column about them. A few years later, I met Manfred Miethe in Interlaken, Switzerland. Manfred is a Tibetan yoga teacher and he was kind enough to teach me the finer points of the rites and the breath work associated with these techniques.  Before meeting Manfred, I had practiced these moves with enormous amounts of optimism but had little evidence of the miraculous benefits of age reversal promised by Keldar and hinted at by Kilham in their books. But Manfred was amongst the fittest and happiest 60 year olds you could ever hope to find. So I assumed that there was bound to be some truth to all the enthusiastic reviews that Keldar’s book had generated.

But I still wondered… If these five rites were so effective, where was Colonel Bradford now? And what about Peter Keldar?  Is he still around? Has the fountain of youth drenched his mortal form with its elixir too? What about all those people who have been practicing these five rites? Where are their testimonials?

And at times I would wonder… are the five rites an imaginative hoax? But then I would push the thought aside and continue to practice. I have been reasonably fit for years now because of a consistent yoga and martial arts practice and when I added the five rites to my regimen, I couldn’t really tell if they helped me feel even better. And I’m in my thirties now, so I believed it was too early to be celebrating the reversal of the ageing process. Time would tell, I thought. Anyway, these rites only took about 15 minutes to complete and they couldn’t possibly do me any harm. At the very least, they were a good warm up for my yoga workouts.

But last week, in a little book shop in Delhi, I happened to spy a spine that said ‘Ancient Fountain of Youth – Book 2’. And in those pages I found my answers and a reassurance that indeed these rites were truly potent movements that could turn back the clock.

On two occasions, I have used this platform to encourage readers to start practicing the five rites. I had held back my doubts from leaking into print then because I am a great believer in the potential of possibilities. But with this book, I can safely urge you to banish your doubts as I have banished mine. Reader after reader has written back to the publishers about how these five rites have firmed up sagging muscles, energized tired and ageing bodies, brushed away wrinkles and restored hairlines to their original glory. The list of age defying miracles goes on… some claim it has improved dimming vision, while others have found relief from debilitating arthritic pain. Memories and life spans have been lengthened and a general sense of youthfulness and well being has touched nearly every body that has tinkered with the Five Tibetans.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman

ExecutiveMBA

Book Review: Fallen Angel: The Making and Unmaking of Rajat Gupta

The lower depths of greed

A palpable shockwave swept through the Indian and international-corporate world after Rajat Gupta, the India-born former head of McKinsey & Co, was convicted for one of the largest insider trading scandal in US history in June 2012. Fallen Angel: The Making and Unmaking of Rajat Gupta by Sandipan Deb, an IITian and IIM graduate and a veteran journalist, brings the events, personalities and drama surrounding the securities fraud.

Many of the central figures like Rajat Gupta, Anil Kumar and their friends are not new to Deb, thanks to his earlier book, The IITians: The Story of an Extraordinary Indian Institution and How Its Alumni Are Reshaping the World. With deep understanding of business and the corporate world, the author who is the former managing editor of Outlook, ex-editor of the Financial Express, and founder-editor of Open till a few months back, has narrated the story of the Fallen Angel in a manner that is easy to comprehend.


It also goes to Deb’s credit that he has produced a crisply written, well-researched book without visiting the courtooms and boardrooms in United States where the drama unfolded with details ferreted out from transcripts of FBI-wiretap conversations and stories put out by global media platforms.

Who was Rajat Gupta? Why did the story grip the US and India and leaders across the globe? Deb answers these questions and more. For those of us who are uninitiated, Rajat Gupta’s life and career is well sketched. In the chapter titled The Karmayogi, Deb writes: “RAJAT GUPTA’S LIFE IS AN ASTONISHING SAGA OF OVERCOMING towering odds through a near superhuman combination of intelligence, hard work, discipline, equanimity and humility.” With such embellishments, the author, a proud IITian, traces Gupta’s life and his struggle and how he managed to reach dizzying heights  in the US corporte sector.

Yet, the author, being an objective journalist, does not take sides. “Rajat Gupta… was the man I had found most difficult to fathom... Either he was the perfect guy - highly intelligent, unfailingly courteous, never a hair out of place - or he had built an impregnable wall around himself. I could not get the slightest glimpse of what could lie behind it…”

However, Gupta’s friends tried hard to save him. Their perceptions of him are chronicled in a website called www.friendsofrajat.com and include Mukesh Ambani and Adi Godrej, among others.

Deb has also drawn sketches of other dramatis persone like Raj Rajaratnam, the richest Sri Lankan-born individual with $1.8 billion, who used, misused and abused people like Rajat Gupta and Anil Kumar, another Mcseyite, who were tricked into giving inside information about their upcoming deals. Also the book traces Preet Bharara, the India-born US attorney for the southern district of New York who led the hunt down in the case, and the Gandhian judge, Justice Jed S Rakoff.

What got Rajat Gupta into trouble was inside information he obtained in his capacity as a member of the Goldman Sachs board and the P&G Board and is alleged to have passed on to Rajaratnam. Though Gupta did not make monetary gains for allegdly passing the insider information to Galleon that benefitted in million of dollars, what nailed him was the single phone conversation between him and Rajaratnam on 29 July 2008. Though Gupta’s defence lawyer considered it to be circumstantial evidence, the judge considered it to be overwhelming.

Gupta was sentenced to 24 months of imprisonment while his colleague Kumar got away almost scot free with two years on probation and a paltry $25,000 fine for turning an approver and helping the law enforcement agencies crack the case.

But what reamins to be answered is why did Rajat Gupta fall prey to the devious machinations of Rajaratnam? The career of Rajaratnam, as Deb points out, amply demonstrates that he has “an instinct for identifying the corruptability potential in a man”.


It is hard to believe that a man as brilliant as Rajat Gupta, one who was among most sought after global leaders, would not have known Rajaratnam and his ways and fell prey like a lamb.

Describing the Rajat Gupta case as ‘a great and immeasurably humbling tragedy’, Deb wonders, “After a lifetime of upright and courageous honesty , did he actually feel the world had not rewarded him enough? Did he really, as Rajaratnam thought, want to join the billionaires’s club? Or was he the unluckiest man in the world?”


Thursday, June 6, 2013

Book Review: Bollywood Baddies

The men we love to hate

Would popular Hindi cinema have been quite as colourful, engaging and full of high drama without the nefarious nudging of its dreaded villains? The answer to that question is an obvious no. “Villains are the unsung heroes of Bollywood cinema, just in case the notion of heroism is extended to imply everything that is both moral and immoral, virtue and vice spun together,” the author of the book under review writes. Indeed, a hero wouldn’t be as grand as, say, the invisible do-gooder protagonist of Mr. India if he did not have a comic-book Mogambo to reckon with, or as engaging as Jai and Veeru of Sholay without a law-unto-himself Gabbar Singh lurking around them menacingly? Why, then, has it taken so inordinately long for a socio-cultural analysis of the role of villainy in Mumbai’s cinematic landscape to be attempted? But better late than never.

This comprehensive study of villainy in Hindi cinema by Tapan K Ghosh, former head of the department of English, Rabindra Bharati University, Kolkata, is by no means the last word on the subject. In fact, no book about the villains of the Mumbai movies can ever hope to sum up the entire story, given how vast and multi-layered it is. The author comes close to accomplishing the impossible.

Bollywood Baddies: Villains, Vamps and Henchmen in Hindi Cinema, while only a beginning, is certainly a much-needed addition to the exploration of an important aspect of the imagination of Mumbai’s commercial filmmakers that has, down the years, dictated the broad parameters of the good versus evil formula, inspired no doubt by the nation’s epics.

This book will definitely serve as a relaible launchpad for any film scholar who desires to conduct a further probe into the phenomena that the likesof  Gabbar Singh and Mogambo were and will always be.

Ghosh covers a lot of ground in terms of specific films and characters that have defined villainy in Mumbai cinema, ranging from the exploitative zamindar Harnam Singh (Murad) in Bimal Roy’s neo-realist Do Bigha Zameen to the reprehensible, bloodthirsty cretin Kancha Cheena (Sanjay Dutt) in the no-holds-barred 2012 version of Agneepath, made two decades after the original film in which Danny Denzongpa played the evil character.

Bollywood Baddies starts, of course, with the negative character – the anti-hero – that Ashok Kumar played in 1943’s Kismet, and then goes on to trace the evolution of screen villainy in the context of the socio-political and economic concerns of a newly independent nation, and in that of the changing landscape thereafter.

That, as is pretty obvious, is a wide spectrum to cover, and the portraits that the author etches, though often shot through with startling insight, are not consistently absorbing. Not that the failing in question takes anything away from the overall triumph of the book.

Ghosh places the villains in three distinct periods of Hindi cinema – the 50s and 60s, Sholay and the 1970s, and the 1980s and after – and places them in the social environment of the times that they represented. From Lala Sukhiram in Mother India to the Shakespeare-inspired Langda Tyagi in Omkara, the villain has assumed innumerable forms but he has, in adherence to classic theatrical forms, always stayed within a formulaic narrative construct aimed at accentuating the heroism of the protagonist.

He notes that in the 1970s, the villain became so powerful that the hero – specifically the angry young man persona portrayed by Amitabh Bachchan – had no time for romance, song and dance and other diversions. He also suggests that Bachchan’s foray into the lighter roles like the one he played in Amar Akbar Anthony only a couple of years after Sholay were a direct reaction to the “wounds Gabbar Singh had left”.

The 1980s onwards, and especially in the 1990s, the Hindi movie heroes began to mimic the villain in many ways as over-the-top characterizations began to reflect the chaotic moral compass of society at large. The emergence of the anti-hero (who can traced back to Kismet’s suave Shekhar), Ghosh argues, stemmed this change.

The author rounds off the book with write-ups on the actors who played villains, vamps and henchmen over the years and a lowdown on a few of the most memorable baddies in Mumbai cinema history. All the names that you expect to encounter in a book on villains – Kanhaiyalal, Pran, Ajit, Prem Chopra, Amrish Puri – are all here. But also in the mix are those that played second fiddle – the henchmen (Shetty, Jeevan, Bob Christo) and the vamps (Lalita Pawar, Shashikala, Nadira, Bindu).


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Time to jockey

Regional satraps sense a big opportunity in elections 2014 and believe this is the right time to change partners. The spectre of new coalitions looms large. Pramod Kumar and Ranjit Bhushan report.

Last week in Lucknow, on the 103rd birth anniversary of Socialist icon Ram Manohar Lohia, Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, caused a huge ripple. He defined BJP leader and his former bete noir LK Advani as an `honest leader’ and a man of principles. His comments came two days after cousin and SP Rajya Sabha MP Ram Gopal Yadav had certified the NDA to be better managers of coalition politics than the UPA.

So is Mulayam moving closer to the BJP? Consider the Yadav chieftain's position: Here is a man who built his politics in the dusty bowls of UP on a stridently anti-BJP platform, opposing its Ramjanmabhoomi politics like no other political party did two decades ago. Mulayam’s robust opposition to the demolition of the Babri Masjid through 1990-91, when large swathes of UP were under a saffron siege,   earned him the goodwill of the state’s sizable Muslim community – a goodwill that continues till date and best exemplified in the 2012 assembly elections rout of his arch rival Mayawati and the decimation of national  parties. His association with BJP leader Kalyan Singh during the 2004 General Elections had proved costly when the Muslim vote bank had deserted him in large numbers, bringing down the SP tally to 14. So did it make sense now to build bridges with Advani, a man Mulayam wanted arrested when the BJP stalwart rode triumphantly on his contentious rath yatra in 1990?

Yet, there is a method in this madness. Mulayam’s recent utterances are potent enough signs that he now wants to get away from the UPA as soon as possible. The idea to throw off the Congress yoke was always a yearning for him; the momentum towards doing that has been provided by the DMK which decided to walk out on the Congress during its toughest hour.

That regional parties are buoyant about their prospects for the 2014 General Elections is more than clear. If they could have their way, they would hold the polls today. National parties are, however, more circumspect about the polls, best illustrated in repeated Congress assertions, first by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and later Finance Minister P Chidambaram, that UPA 2 will last out its full term and that polls will be held not before they are due.

Union Minister Kapil Sibal drove home that point when he told reporters this week, “what is their (regional parties’) hurry to hold elections and come to power. Dilli abhi door ast (Delhi is a long way away). They may think they hold the aces, but we know better.’’


What then is the burst of adrenalin currently experienced by regional parties – the JD (U) in Bihar, DMK in Tamil Nadu, SP in UP, Trinamool in West Bengal and NCP in Maharashtra - of going it alone. It is not that they are under any optical illusion of forming the next government on their own strength; they simply do not have the numbers. But they are quite willing, at the moment, to break the rules of the game and emerge, if possible, as major players in any future alliance. If it means tampering with sensitive issues like pre and post-poll alliances, which the two national parties are understandably not too keen to probe at the moment, then be it so.


SP's Ram Gopal Yadav told TSI, “Results of the next elections will be a shocker and in such a situation the SP will have an important role to play. There can be no secular government in place without us. We will get the numbers in UP which will make it impossible to ignore us.’’

Why are the regional parties pumped up? A closer look will reveal that their optimism is based entirely on caste considerations, startling chutzpah and rank opportunism. Mulayam’s charge that the Congress is doing nothing for the minorities except lip service is aimed at underlining the SP control over the 19 percent minority vote bank, something which came good for them in the 2012 UP assembly elections. Will the trend repeat itself in a general election remains the big question, giving way to the current jockeying for positions.

While supporting the UPA government at the centre for the last nine years, the SP is basically an anti-Congress, anti-BJP formation. Which is why their leaders constantly maintain that post 2014 elections, a Third Front opposed to both the national parties, will come into being. Even so, the SP supremo has not thought it fit to part ways with the Congress; Yadav has praised Advani and is talking to Left leaders, as well as liaise with Sharad Pawar and NCP, all in a day’s work.

The SP has already declared the names of 66 party candidates for the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP. SP national secretary Rajesh Chaturvedi told this magazine that the party is trying for a three-fold increase in its vote share. Ambitious, but the SP is quite prepared to gird up its loins for the battle ahead.

In these difficult times for the Congress, the way in which the BSP has stood by it, suggests that party supremo Mayawati may now ask for a quid pro quo for its unstinting support. Winner of 21 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP can count wholly on its Dalit vote bank but most observers believe that the party is more inclined towards state politics rather than the centre. Party insiders believe that while relations are sound with the Congress, the BSP favours equal distance with both the SP and BJP.


Mayawati’s recent meeting with Sharad Pawar is just a delicate hint that she would be willing to support a ‘secular’ regional parties-backed formation at the centre. Says a BSP leader, who does not want to be quoted ,“Behenji (Mayawati) is playing her cards close to her chest. She will reveal it when the time comes. Once the Modi dust settles down and every political player has had his or her say, then she will come out. Her lack of access to the media means that her political moves are largely under cover. That does not make her any less of a player.’’

Political movers in the capital suggest that Sharad Pawar too fancies his chances as Prime Minister and is in the midst of some hectic deal making. In these last nine years, he has managed to establish the NCP as a serious player capable of holding his own in the company of Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and other Congress stalwarts. In addition, Pawar has sewn up an alliance with Laloo  Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan to take on Nitish and with ‘smaller brother’ Mulayam in UP; he has personal equations with K Karunanidhi and Chandra Babu Naidu and even Naidu’s archrival Jagan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh.

Says NCP leader and Union Minister Praful Patel: “Sharad Pawar is the right man to lead the next government. He has the desired experience and credibility. He will be most acceptable to all allies. ’’

Pawar has good equations with regional leaders and his age, seniority and moderate image will make him an acceptable candidate for many contestants. That certainly cannot be said about a number of other players currently active on the electoral chess board.


In what is becoming a demonic race to secure vote banks and alliances cutting across the regional divide, no one is taking any chances. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar is using the development card to deadly affect in combination with his Kurmi, Most Backward Caste (MBC) and Muslim vote bank. The main reason for his antipathy to BJP’s star campaigner Narendra Modi is rooted in his quest for the significant 15 percent minority vote bank in Bihar. That, Nitish believes, will give him the leverage required to make a difference at the centre when the times comes.

Observers believe that a man of Nitish’s political savvy has trained his guns on a special status for Bihar mainly for political reasons. While there can be no doubt that the state needs financial assistance, an upgraded status for Bihar could end up including other Bimaru states as well under that specific category. In political terms, it would mean additional clout for Nitish, who too has his eyes trained on potential allies from the Hindi belt to bolster his claims for the top job. Understandably therefore, he has so far refrained from making any commitment and is in no tearing hurry to show his hand.

Armed with the best CM status, Nitish’s domination of JD(U) is so complete that even party president Sharad Yadav has been reduced to being a mere bystander. The Bihar Chief Minister has even put question marks against Sharad Yadav’s chairmanship of the NDA. He is reportedly keen to invite Sonia and Manmohan to inaugurate a number of development projects in the state and has virtually declined to let LK Advani do the honours, despite Yadav's best efforts. Predicts Sharad Yadav, a trifle blandly, “the economic policies of the UPA government will force voters into our camp.’’

It is not as if Laloo Yadav is not drawing big crowds at his public meetings but it is his inability turn this audience into a vote bank, which is pulling the RJD strongman down. By now both he and Ram Vilas Paswan have realised that it will be difficult to push Nitish around because his development slogan has pushed the caste-based equations of the RJD and Paswan out of the window. So what best except to team up with an outside ally like Sharad Pawar to check out if any of the old Congress muscle in Bihar could be rejuvenated.

Even though Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh has announced that the party will declare the names of its candidates a year in advance, insiders who know say that all decisions in the party will be taken at the last minute. At the moment, India's oldest party is gearing up its poll strategy, determined to take on Narendra Modi or who ever comes in its quest for a third consecutive term.
A high-level Rahul Gandhi-led Congress team (or a war room) which includes Jairam Ramesh, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Salman Khurshid, Digvijay Singh and three dozen small and middling leaders, have been co opted for this exercise. While UP, as can be expected, is its top priority, Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odisha and Karnataka are its tier-two preferences. In these states, reports by observers who were sent there three months ago, are currently on the discussion table.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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Monday, June 3, 2013

Keeping a fine balance

Why is Pakistan afraid of India helping Afghanistan?

Pakistan has always hyperactive in pre-empting any effort on the part of India to become cosy with Afghanistan. Perhaps, it feels that it is its prerogative to wield influence among other Muslim countries in the South Asian neighbourhood.

Though Pakistan and Afghanistan share umblical and historical bonds that go back many hundreds of years, the former still gets deeply uncomfortable at seeing ties between India and Afghanistan grow. What is it about India-Afghanistan relations that sticks in Pakistan’s craw? is it afraid that growing Indian influence in Afghanistan will undermine and erode the fraternal ties that bind Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, has already embraced India in his circle friends. At the same time he has been careful about not infuriating Pakistan. Much of it was in evidence when Karzai signed on  the Strategic Partnership Agreement with India in 2011. “Pakistan is our twin brother, India is a great friend. The agreement we signed with our friend will not affect our brother,” he had said after signing the document. Karzai, in fact, has maintained a delicate and fine balance in the region by keeping Pakistan in good humour and not letting India's growing co-operation with his country to affect its deep-rooted ties with Pakistan.

Karzai needs both India’s resources and Pakistan’s strategic support to keep a tight leash on the Taliban and other terror groups operating in his country. In this context, it is in his best interest to play the two against each other even as both the countries vie to secure a larger share in Afghanistan’s future. And like an astute politician, he has been playing his moves with the dexterity of a fine chess player,  making sure that Afghanistan continues to reap the benfits of good bilateral relationship with both India and Pakistan.

However, Pakistan knows that it cannot compete with India eventually because of the latter’s far superior economic strength. How can a nation whose own existence is based upon the oxygen of foreign aid expect to keep a tight rein on the policies of another country merely by blackmailing tactics over the long run? India is already the fourth-largest financial donor for Afghanistan with a contribution of over $2 billion by the end of 2011, which is only behind that of the US, Germany and Japan. However, in the short term, Pakistan can play with its strategic card of firewalling India’s efforts of integrating Afghanistan with South Asia, which has strategic interest for Delhi. It can do so by influencing the US to keep Delhi on the sidelines in return for backing the American bet to curb terrorism in the region.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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